What next for Australian property?

There have recently been many articles in the media regarding changing property prices. Unlike shares, which can be accurately tracked day-to-day, property is historically an opaque market with less visibility on price movements. However, over the past few years computers with sophisticated programming have been able to track property markets more accurately and provide an increasing level of transparency. This has led to a range of property research reports providing up-to-date information on the markets and as a result, this information has flowed through to media publications reporting ‘booms’ and ‘busts’ that now rival the extremes previously associated with the share market.

Over the years I have often heard people say, ‘Oh, property always goes up’. So, when this recent downturn occurred it might have come as a surprise to some. In fact, these days we are reading or hearing about people who have purchased property, held onto it for five to 10 years, and seen little or no capital growth. And this isn’t just in one market; it’s in growth corridors, large high-rise developments, in different states and territories, metropolitan, regional … Clearly, the good old days of property being a ‘sure thing’ are now long behind us.

The graph below shows ‘Real Residential Property Prices for Australia’.

As you can see, we have experienced downturns in property for the following periods:

1. Q4 2003 – Q3 2005

2. Q4 2007 – Q1 2009

3. Q2 2010 – Q3 2012

4. Q2 2017 – ???

Interestingly, most of the pullbacks have lasted on average around two years. Historically, each pullback has ranged between –3% to –8%. And as household debt levels have slowly risen over time, so too have the more serious repercussions of the downturn for homeowners. It’s worth remembering that the most valuable lesson in leverage is that it can magnify the upside, but also the downside. Early drawdowns were around 3–4%, while more recent ones have been around 8% as household debt has spiralled upwards.

In recent times, we have been alerted to a reduction in borrowing capacities. This was first reported earlier this year by UBS analysts, as banks slowly changed their borrowing assessment methodology to consider individual spending patterns rather than applying a basic assumption of living expenditure. This has led to a potential reduction in borrowing capacities of around 20–40%, to around 80% of the mortgage market being serviced by the major banks.

So, what does all this mean? Well, a person on a gross income of $150K can now borrow around 34% less than before, and is effectively limited to a loan of around $538K.

Coupled with the impact of a slowing source of overseas buyers, we can see why recent moves in property prices have taken place.

How far will this drawdown go? Well, each state, city, region or suburb is unique in its own price movements; however, I would not be at all surprised if we find these overall figures continue to at least a 10% drawdown before this latest down-cycle is complete.

It’s important to realise that in property, as in all markets, a pullback doesn’t mean there won’t be opportunities. It is likely, however, that simply throwing money into the property market with a view to making a profit is going to be more challenging. We need to be a lot more selective in acquiring property and also the decisions we make around the timeframes for holding periods.

Like all great investment ideas, before you consider purchasing property, it is important that you seek out and obtain profession financial planning advice from a practising financial planner and, of course, I recommend AJ Financial Planning.

Does your retirement super need to be ‘Zengosaidan’?

I often like to read ‘peculiar’ books that give me some insights into different ways of thinking. I recently came across a book review in The Monocle Minute. It inspired me to buy the book: A Monk’s Guide to a Clean House and Mind by Shoukei Matsumoto (Penguin Books 2018). Now, I am not Buddhist, but I did find this little book an interesting read. In particular, it spoke about the concept of Zengosaidan, which is defined as ‘… a Zen expression meaning that we must put all our efforts into each day so we have no regrets, and that we must not grieve for the past or worry about the future … Don’t put it off till tomorrow …’

I found this idea thought-provoking – particularly when I consider my daily work, which is retirement planning. Because at some point, most people in Australia will stop working and retire. For a lot of them, they will need an asset base to fund this stage of their life. Best-case scenario, they will be 100 per cent reliant, or partially reliant, upon these funds.

However, despite this reality many people drift through life without placing much emphasis on, or at least paying attention to, the preparation required for saving for later life.

Now, I am not saying everybody needs to become an expert in retirement planning. I think the important distinction is we should become engaged with our impending retirement and ensure that when the day arrives, we have no regrets.

We often take a ‘no regrets’ approach to life experiences such as holidays, ticking off the bucket list or achieving other major lifetime goals. However, shouldn’t we be turning our attention towards what steps might need to be taken to ensure that our retirement savings are maximised during our career and particularly in the lead-up to retirement?

Today, the only discussion we often hear about retirement is having ‘no regrets’ about spending the kids’ inheritance and driving off into the distance.

It’s probably time this conversation matured.

I think this philosophy of ‘no regrets’, or Zengosaidan, needs to be front of mind as we approach retirement. For example, consider the following mental checklist:

  • Do you have enough to live on in retirement – for the whole of your retirement?
  • Have you maximised all possible options within your retirement strategy to ensure that you are well placed when you retire?
  • Looking at your retirement picture, what are the financial trade-offs if you make particular financial decisions today?

Believe it or not, virtual reality can make this process a lot easier. In a few years’ time I will be able to sit with a client, get them to put on a virtual reality headset, and then pull up a picture of what they might look like at retirement age. This might help them appreciate what they need to do to help the older-looking them in retirement. Potentially, we can create a real-live model of what retirement will look like if they do nothing, compared with what it will look like if they put into action the recommended steps to maximise their financial position opportunities.

Until this technology catches up with us, though, we will need to use our own imagination for the time being. I think, however, it is important that you keep in mind the following: When you stand at the threshold, about to take the leap from your working life into retirement, and reflect on what you have achieved, you want to be confident that you have optimised your financial situation, so the next chapter of your life can be everything you wished for and more.

Like all great ideas, it’s important that when you think about retirement planning, you don’t go it alone and seek advice from a practising and suitably qualified financial planner and, of course, I recommend AJ Financial Planning.

Could your Hostplus Index Balanced Fund be a disappointment?

Around $2.5 billion has reportedly flowed into the industry super fund Hostplus in recent times. This influx of funds has largely been on the back of media commentators promoting Hostplus, in particular its Hostplus Index Balanced Fund.

My understanding is that the main thrust for this investment boost was on the back of lower fees and the merits of index investing.

We recently had a client who, after reading media commentary, wanted to move their funds from another industry super fund into the Hostplus Index Balanced Fund. Their existing fund’s fees were 0.19%, while the Hostplus Index Balanced Fund was reportedly charging a low-cost fee of 0.07%. But was switching funds the right decision?

Does the argument start and finish with fees and does index investing mean a better result? To get an overall picture, let’s compare the performance of the Hostplus Balanced Fund compared to the Hostplus Index Balanced Fund. As both are reportedly ‘balanced’ funds (refer to our article ‘Industry funds headed for an asset allocation disaster’ https://www.ajfp.com.au/2017/07/17/are-industry-super-funds-headed-for-an-asset-allocation-disaster/), if these products are true to label, then it should be a fair comparison.

At the time of writing this article, the Hostplus website reported the following performance returns, net of all investment and administration costs.

It is important to note that historical performance is no guarantee of future performance. However, over time it might given an indication of the level of competence of the fund’s managers and the soundness of their investment strategy. Unfortunately, 10-year figures were not available for the Indexed Balanced Fund and are therefore not included. But I believe seven years is a reasonable timeline to afford some sensible analysis.

If low fees are the only matrix for success, then why is this not reflected in the end result – net performance over the longer term for the investor?

In fact, over the shorter, three-year period the performance variance between the two funds was 2.71% p.a. So while investors saved 0.99% in fees, they potentially gave away 2.71% in returns. Assuming a super balance starting point of $100,000, if this variance continued at its present pace, over an investor’s working life it could result in a total loss of return of around $171,839.

In short, when considering investing in a superannuation fund, you need to factor in all the elements. At a minimum, these include the ongoing costs of the fund, and the net return on a like-for-like basis. There are plenty of low-cost super funds around, but very few actually produce a decent return. And while performance is difficult to gauge, competence and quality of management can sometimes be illustrated over the longer term.

Like all sound investment decisions, it is important to seek professional guidance from a practising financial planner. Contact AJ Financial Planning today for a chat.

AJ Radio – Episode 19 (Recorded 24th July 2018)

In this 19th Episode of AJ Radio we crack open a segment of the investment market that was once thought perhaps to be a trivial area. Now, with a projected 2.3 billion people participating in this area of the market and a forecasted spend of $137.9 billion in 2018, this area of the market is no longer a niche player.  This episode takes a closer look at what is transpiring in this exciting video game market and the opportunities it presents for investors.

Is it better to retire on a $350k super fund, or a $900k super fund balance?

When it comes to retirement most people believe more is best, but is this always the case? Have the Centrelink changes that came into effect last year distorted reality; has the $350k super fund become the new $900k – without all the extra effort of squirrelling away so much for retirement?

Let’s assume we know two couples who are about to retire. One couple has a balance of $350k; the other has $900k. Both couples want a modest living standard in retirement, with an income stream of around $50k p.a.

The first couple with a combined balance of $350k can expect to receive an income stream of around $21,000 p.a. Potentially, they might also receive the Age Pension if their combined assets – excluding their home – sits under the threshold of $380,500. The projected Age Pension is likely to pay them a combined income of $35,573. Thus, they will end up with a total combined income of $56,573. It is likely that at a 6% drawdown rate, their superannuation will not be eroded too fast, so it should be possible for them to keep pace with inflation during their remaining lifetime.

In addition to receiving the Aged Pension, this couple will also receive all the benefits and concessions that normally come with it, such as discounts on utilities, medicines, etc.

The second couple has a combined super balance of $900k. Like the first couple, they own their own home. But as their combined asset balance exceeds the maximum Centrelink threshold of $837,000, they are not eligible for the Age Pension.

This couple will commence an income stream from their superannuation balance and, assuming a similar 6% drawdown limit, they will be eligible to draw a combined retirement income of $54,000 p.a. If their super fund’s performance remains reasonable, this should also last them until life expectancy and keep pace with inflation.

However, being over the Centrelink threshold means that this couple is not eligible for any of the discounts and benefits that normally accompany the Age Pension, although they will also not be affected by any government changes that might occur in the future to Centrelink thresholds.

They could also draw down a higher income stream earlier in their retirement, to enjoy travel and entertainment, etc. Then as they age their need for cashflow might not be as great, so they can gradually ‘ease off the throttle’ and reduce their balance to the $350k mark, and be in a similar situation to the first couple.

So the next time you are feeling a little underwhelmed about your retirement picture, it’s important to give consideration to all options that might be available to you. Sometimes, bigger may not be better. Or, you might be better off sitting at the $900k balance, possibly spending the difference on home improvements, travel, a new car etc. Later you could drop to the Age Pension limit, and even if you receive just $1 from the Age Pension, it still means you qualify to enjoy the other benefits that come with this government offering.

Before delving into a retirement strategy, it’s important you take your personal situation into account and seek advice from a qualified financial planning professional. Of course, we recommend AJ Financial Planning.

AJ Radio – Episode ​15 (Recorded 17th October 2017)

In this 15th Episode of AJ Radio we discuss retirement. Specifically, we explore what you should do if you don’t have enough money for retirement, and what are the steps you could consider taking to handle this situation. We also give a quick update on the speculative and very interesting cryptocurrency market.